Problem
A narrow view of war hides the political, social, and historical forces that shape it.
Action
Examine every relevant context before choosing a course of action.
Outcome
Your decisions will better fit the real conditions of the conflict.
Chapter: War and Peace - The Contexts of War Are All Important
Problem
Military action can create a peace that fails to serve the original policy.
Action
Define the desired peace before deciding how to fight.
Outcome
Military effort will support a clear political result.
Chapter: War and Peace - War Is About Peace, and Peace Can Be About War
Problem
Former enemies may reject a settlement that ignores their fears and interests.
Action
Plan early for negotiation, acceptance, and enforcement of the peace.
Outcome
The settlement will have a better chance of lasting.
Chapter: War and Peace - It Is More Difficult to Make Peace than It Is to Make War
Problem
War can achieve its immediate purpose while creating serious new problems.
Action
Identify likely side effects before using force.
Outcome
Leaders will make better choices about the costs and risks of war.
Chapter: War and Peace - War Works! But Always Has Unintended and Unanticipated Consequences
Problem
Peace weakens when nobody has the power and duty to protect it.
Action
Give a capable authority clear responsibility for enforcing order.
Outcome
Peace will be more stable against violence and disorder.
Chapter: War and Peace - Peace and Order Are Not Self-Enforcing, They Have to Be Organized and Kept by Somebody
Problem
Political leaders do not control every social belief that shapes war and peace.
Action
Study the values and habits of each society involved.
Outcome
Plans will better reflect how people are likely to behave.
Chapter: War and Peace - Not Only Polities, but Societies and Their Cultures Make War and Peace
Problem
Strong emotions and random events can pull a war away from its purpose.
Action
Review major decisions calmly when emotions rise or conditions change.
Outcome
Policy will retain greater control over military action.
Chapter: War and Peace - Reason Reigns Over War, but Passion and Chance Threaten to Rule
Problem
Success in fighting cannot manage every political and social aspect of war.
Action
Coordinate military action with diplomacy, economics, and public authority.
Outcome
The wider effort will support the intended political result.
Chapter: War and Peace - There Is More to War than Warfare
Problem
Policy fails when leaders misunderstand the kind of war they are directing.
Action
Test political aims against the conflict's actual nature and current character.
Outcome
Policy will demand results that military action can realistically support.
Chapter: War and Peace - Policy Is King, but Often Is Ignorant of the Nature and Character of War
Problem
No plan can remove uncertainty from war.
Action
Compare possible gains with risks before choosing to fight.
Outcome
Leaders will accept danger only for purposes worth the gamble.
Chapter: War and Peace - War Is Always a Gamble
Problem
Strategic skill declines when institutions stop studying and practicing it.
Action
Teach strategic history and judgment continuously.
Outcome
Future leaders will be better prepared to connect action with policy.
Chapter: Strategy - Knowledge of Strategy Is Vital: The Flame of Strategic Understanding Has to Be Kept Lit
Problem
Strategy must translate broad political aims into effective action under uncertain conditions.
Action
Train leaders to link each operational choice to a political purpose.
Outcome
Military activity will serve policy more consistently.
Chapter: Strategy - Strategy Is More Difficult than Policy or Tactics
Problem
Failure at any level can waste lives and defeat the entire effort.
Action
Review whether policy, strategy, and tactics support one another.
Outcome
The whole campaign will have fewer dangerous contradictions.
Chapter: Strategy - Bad Strategy Kills, but So Also Do Bad Policy and Tactics
Problem
Many new strategic claims repeat old lessons without understanding them.
Action
Compare each major claim with Thucydides, Sun-tzu, and Clausewitz.
Outcome
Weak ideas will be easier to detect before they shape policy.
Chapter: Strategy - If Thucydides, Sun-tzu, and Clausewitz Did Not Say It, It Probably Is Not Worth Saying
Problem
Popular concepts often hide old ideas behind new language.
Action
Test each fashionable concept for lasting value and practical use.
Outcome
Strategy will rely less on temporary fashion.
Chapter: Strategy - The Strategic "Concept du Jour" Will Be Tomorrow's Stale Left-Over, Until It Is Rediscovered, Recycled, and Revealed as a New Truth
Problem
The enemy will adapt and interfere with every plan.
Action
Anticipate enemy choices and prepare several responses.
Outcome
Your strategy will remain useful when the enemy reacts.
Chapter: Strategy - The Enemy Too Has a Vote
Problem
Lost time cannot be recovered when political or military opportunities close.
Action
Set priorities and act before favorable conditions disappear.
Outcome
Important opportunities will be less likely to pass unused.
Chapter: Strategy - Time Is the Least Forgiving Dimension of Strategy
Problem
Confusion, delays, errors, and equipment failures disrupt every military effort.
Action
Keep plans simple and provide reserves for predictable disruption.
Outcome
Operations will continue when events depart from the plan.
Chapter: Strategy - Friction Is Unavoidable, but Need Not Be Fatal
Problem
Distance, terrain, location, and access limit what power can achieve.
Action
Base strategic choices on the physical features of the theater.
Outcome
Plans will fit the opportunities and limits created by geography.
Chapter: Strategy - All Strategy Is Geostrategy: Geography Is Fundamental
Problem
Military force alone cannot produce every political result.
Action
Coordinate force with diplomatic, economic, and social measures.
Outcome
The state will use its available power more effectively.
Chapter: Strategy - Strategy Is Not Wholly Military
Problem
Resources are wasted when leaders treat impossible conditions as solvable problems.
Action
Remove objectives that cannot be achieved under real conditions.
Outcome
Effort will focus on attainable goals.
Chapter: Strategy - The Impossible Is Impossible; It Is a Condition, Not a Problem for Which a Solution Has Yet to Be Found
Problem
Weapons cannot compensate for weak judgment, training, or morale.
Action
Select, train, and support capable people before expanding equipment.
Outcome
Military power will perform more reliably under pressure.
Chapter: Military Power and Warfare - People Matter Most
Problem
Political influence weakens when opponents doubt a state's ability to use force.
Action
Build military power that can support political commitments.
Outcome
Diplomacy will carry greater weight when vital interests are challenged.
Chapter: Military Power and Warfare - Military Power Is Trumps in Politics
Problem
Exercises and appearances cannot prove how forces will perform in war.
Action
Evaluate military claims by demanding evidence from real operations.
Outcome
Assessments of combat quality will become more realistic.
Chapter: Military Power and Warfare - Military Excellence Can Only Be Verified by Performance in War
Problem
Excellent forces can still fail when their actions do not serve a sound strategy.
Action
Direct military skill toward clear and achievable political goals.
Outcome
Combat strength is more likely to produce strategic success.
Chapter: Military Power and Warfare - Military Excellence Cannot Guarantee Strategic Success
Problem
A battlefield victory can be wasted if it does not advance the larger purpose.
Action
Plan how each battle will support the desired strategic and political result.
Outcome
Military success will contribute more directly to lasting gains.
Chapter: Military Power and Warfare - Victory in Battle Does Not Ensure Strategic or Political Success, but Defeat All but Guarantees Failure
Problem
Viewing the enemy only as targets hides motives, morale, and the ability to adapt.
Action
Study how enemy leaders and societies think and respond.
Outcome
Military action will influence enemy behavior more effectively.
Chapter: Military Power and Warfare - There Is More to War than Firepower: The Enemy Is Not Just a Target Set
Problem
Forces cannot exploit opportunities without reliable supplies, transport, and maintenance.
Action
Confirm logistical capacity before committing to an operation.
Outcome
Strategy will pursue opportunities that forces can sustain.
Chapter: Military Power and Warfare - Logistics Is the Arbiter of Strategic Opportunity
Problem
Periods of calm can create a false sense of confidence that serious conflict has ended.
Action
Maintain readiness during peaceful periods.
Outcome
The state will respond faster when conditions worsen.
Chapter: Security and Insecurity - Bad Times Return
Problem
Some people, both inside and outside the state, will exploit weakness for harmful ends.
Action
Identify dangerous actors and limit their ability to cause harm.
Outcome
The state will reduce its exposure to deliberate threats.
Chapter: Security and Insecurity - There Are Always Thugs, Villains, Rogues, and Fools Out There, as Well Some in Here, Who Mean Us Harm
Problem
Rare threats can cause extreme damage when ordinary defenses are insufficient.
Action
Maintain plans and capabilities for the most dangerous plausible threats.
Outcome
The state will be less vulnerable to a sudden major crisis.
Chapter: Security and Insecurity - Superthreats Do Appear
Problem
Bold action can create irreversible harm when knowledge is limited.
Action
Compare risks carefully before making a major commitment.
Outcome
Statecraft will avoid more reckless and costly choices.
Chapter: Security and Insecurity - Prudence Is the Supreme Virtue in Statecraft and Strategy
Problem
Good intentions do not protect a policy from harmful consequences.
Action
Test each proposal against realistic behavior and historical experience.
Outcome
Decisions will depend more on probable effects than worthy motives.
Chapter: Security and Insecurity - Strategic History Punishes Good Intentions
Problem
Defense spending is visible, while the security it provides is difficult to prove.
Action
Connect each major defense cost to a clear risk and capability.
Outcome
Public debate will help us better understand what the spending is meant to protect.
Chapter: Security and Insecurity - Defense Costs Are Certain, but Security Benefits Are Uncertain and Arguable
Problem
Agreements cannot control weapons when states still expect conflict.
Action
Reduce political hostility while verifying limits on arms.
Outcome
Arms limits will have stronger support from the security relationship.
Chapter: Security and Insecurity - Arms Can Be Controlled, but Not by Arms Control
Problem
New technology can hide the lasting role of fear, ambition, and power.
Action
Compare current events with recurring patterns in strategic history.
Outcome
Modern change will be judged with a clearer view of what remains constant.
Chapter: History and the Future - Nothing of Real Importance Changes: Modern History Is Not Modern
Problem
Selective examples can make history appear to support any claim.
Action
Compare several relevant cases before drawing a lesson.
Outcome
Historical judgment will become more careful and useful.
Chapter: History and the Future - History Can Be Misused to "Prove" Anything, but It Is All That We Have as a Guide to the Future
Problem
Precise forecasts fail because important events and choices cannot be known in advance.
Action
Prepare options for several plausible future conditions.
Outcome
Strategy will adapt better when predictions prove wrong.
Chapter: History and the Future - The Future Is Not Foreseeable: Nothing Dates So Rapidly as Today's Tomorrow
Problem
Unexpected events are certain even when their timing and form are unknown.
Action
Create flexible plans, reserves, and rapid decision processes.
Outcome
Surprise will cause less lasting damage.
Chapter: History and the Future - Surprise Is Unavoidable, but Its Effect Is Not
Problem
Some conflicts force choices in which every available option causes harm.
Action
Choose the least harmful feasible course, fully aware of its cost.
Outcome
Leaders will handle tragic choices with greater honesty and care.
Chapter: History and the Future - Tragedy Happens