Milcraft

The Strategy of Denial (Elbridge A. Colby)

Table of Contents

Copy Doctrine

Practice 1: Direct resources toward vital interests

Problem
Secondary goals can consume resources needed to protect vital national interests.

Action
Direct limited resources toward the interests most important to American security.

Outcome
This focus makes national commitments more sustainable during serious conflict.

Chapter: The Purposes of American Strategy

Practice 2: Preserve a favorable regional balance

Problem
A hostile power that dominates a major region can gain enough strength to threaten the United States.

Action
Prevent any hostile power from controlling a major center of global wealth and power.

Outcome
A favorable balance keeps distant threats from becoming direct dangers.

Chapter: The Favorable Regional Balance of Power

Practice 3: Make alliance defenses credible

Problem
An alliance promise can invite attack when an opponent doubts that it will be honored.

Action
Support each alliance commitment with a clear defense plan and sufficient local forces.

Outcome
Credible defenses make opponents less likely to test alliance promises.

Chapter: Alliances and Their Effective, Credible Defense

Practice 4: Define the defense perimeter clearly

Problem
Unclear commitments can cause opponents and partners to misjudge American intentions.

Action
State which territories the United States will defend before a crisis begins.

Outcome
Clear commitments make deterrence more credible.

Chapter: Defining the Defense Perimeter

Practice 5: Match military aims to limited stakes

Problem
A limited war can expand when military actions exceed the political objective.

Action
Use only the force needed to deny the opponent's political objective.

Outcome
Restraint protects the objective without creating pressure for a wider war.

Chapter: Military Strategy in Limited Wars

Practice 6: Plan against the opponent's best strategy

Problem
A defense plan is fragile when it assumes the opponent will make avoidable mistakes.

Action
Test every plan against the opponent's strongest realistic course of action.

Outcome
The resulting defense remains useful under the most dangerous conditions.

Chapter: The Importance of Focusing on an Opponent's Best Strategies

Practice 7: Block Beijing's path to a quick local victory

Problem
Beijing could weaken the regional coalition by defeating an exposed member before others respond.

Action
Prepare the most exposed allies to resist a fast and focused Chinese attack.

Outcome
Strong local resistance blocks Beijing from breaking the coalition one member at a time.

Chapter: Beijing's Best Strategy

Practice 8: Build a denial defense

Problem
An exposed ally can fall before distant reinforcements arrive.

Action
Deploy survivable forces that can stop an invasion inside the contested region.

Outcome
A low chance of military success makes aggression less attractive.

Chapter: A Denial Defense

Practice 9: Control escalation after denying an attack

Problem
A successful defense can still lead to wider war when either side expands its aims.

Action
Offer terms that restore the prior boundary after the attack has been stopped.

Outcome
Limited terms give both sides a credible way to end the war.

Chapter: Limited War after an Effective Denial Defense

Practice 10: Use aggression to bind the coalition

Problem
Allies may remain neutral when they view an attack as a narrow local dispute.

Action
Organize collective resistance around the aggressor's visible threat to other states.

Outcome
Shared danger gives coalition members a stronger reason to act together.

Chapter: The Binding Strategy

Practice 11: Concentrate defense resources on the decisive theater

Problem
Spreading forces across too many priorities leaves too little strength for the most important contest.

Action
Concentrate American planning and forces on denying Chinese dominance in Asia.

Outcome
Focused resources improve the coalition's ability to stop the most serious threat.

Chapter: Implications

Practice 12: Seek a stable balance instead of total victory

Problem
Trying to destroy a rival's power can create unlimited conflict and lasting insecurity.

Action
Accept a settlement that protects core interests while allowing the rival to remain secure.

Outcome
A balanced settlement creates a more durable peace.

Chapter: A Decent Peace