Milcraft

Why We Fight (Christopher Blattman)

Table of Contents

Copy Doctrine

Practice 1: Seek a bargain before using force

Problem
War destroys resources that both sides could preserve through agreement.

Action
Offer terms that give each side more than it expects to gain from fighting.

Outcome
Both sides can protect their interests without paying the costs of war.

Chapter: The Roots of War - Why We Don't Fight

Practice 2: Check leaders who profit from conflict

Problem
Leaders may choose war when they receive the benefits but avoid the costs.

Action
Give affected people the power to review and restrain decisions about war.

Outcome
Leaders have less freedom to start conflicts for personal gain.

Chapter: The Roots of War - Unchecked Interests

Practice 3: Protect values during negotiation

Problem
People may reject material gains when compromise threatens their identity or dignity.

Action
Design agreements that respect each side's core values and social standing.

Outcome
Compromise becomes acceptable without requiring either side to abandon its identity.

Chapter: The Roots of War - Intangible Incentives

Practice 4: Reduce uncertainty with credible information

Problem
Rivals may fight because they misjudge each other's strength or resolve.

Action
Share verifiable information and use costly signals to show true intentions.

Outcome
Both sides can compare war with realistic settlement options.

Chapter: The Roots of War - Uncertainty

Practice 5: Make future promises credible

Problem
A side may reject peace when it expects the other side to break the agreement later.

Action
Support the agreement with guarantees that remain strong after power changes.

Outcome
Each side can accept peace with greater confidence that the terms will last.

Chapter: The Roots of War - Commitment Problems

Practice 6: Test beliefs about the other side

Problem
Bias and poor information can make opponents seem more hostile than they are.

Action
Compare key assumptions with evidence and serious opposing views.

Outcome
Decisions reflect actual threats instead of imagined ones.

Chapter: The Roots of War - Misperceptions

Practice 7: Build ties that make peace valuable

Problem
Conflict becomes easier when rivals lose little by ending their relationship.

Action
Create lasting economic and social ties that benefit both sides.

Outcome
War becomes less attractive because it would destroy shared gains.

Chapter: The Paths to Peace - Interdependence

Practice 8: Divide the power to start conflict

Problem
Concentrated power allows a small group to choose war without broad consent.

Action
Require independent institutions and affected groups to approve major uses of force.

Outcome
Reckless leaders face stricter limits on decisions that could lead to war.

Chapter: The Paths to Peace - Checks and Balances

Practice 9: Enforce clear rules fairly

Problem
Agreements fail when parties expect violations to bring no reliable consequence.

Action
Set clear rules and apply predictable penalties when either side breaks them.

Outcome
Cooperation becomes safer because violations are less rewarding.

Chapter: The Paths to Peace - Rules and Enforcement

Practice 10: Match intervention to the cause

Problem
A peace effort can fail when it addresses the wrong source of conflict.

Action
Identify the main barrier to agreement before choosing mediation, aid, sanctions, or peacekeeping.

Outcome
The intervention targets the condition that is blocking peace.

Chapter: The Paths to Peace - Interventions

Practice 11: Watch for solutions that create new risks

Problem
A policy that reduces one cause of war may strengthen another cause.

Action
Check how each peace measure changes interests, information, power, and trust.

Outcome
Peace efforts are less likely to push rivals toward another path to war.

Chapter: The Paths to Peace - Wayward Paths to War and Peace

Practice 12: Improve peace through small experiments

Problem
Large plans often fail because conflict has many local causes and uncertain effects.

Action
Test modest changes, measure their results, and expand only what works.

Outcome
Peace grows through practical improvements that fit local conditions.

Chapter: Conclusion: The Peacemeal Engineer